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Accountancy Recruitment September 2009
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09/09/2009
Recent weeks have seen endless speculation about when the end of the UK recession will come, with job hunters, perhaps unsurprisingly given the fragile state of the economy, receiving mixed messages. Chancellor Alistair Darling has stated that he believes the UK will follow in the footsteps of neighbours France and Germany and return to growth at the turn of the year, writing in the Guardian that while risks remain he is confident economic improvements are around the corner.
However, this varies significantly from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's latest forecast, which suggests that Britain will be the last advanced economy to move out of recession. According to the body, the UK will not see any growth this year, leaving the nation lagging six months behind its competitors, and it also hinted at further contraction in the autumn months.
While this news is likely to dampen the spirits of finance professionals, who are more than ready to wave goodbye to the current economic downturn, it may be the case that it is not all doom and gloom for those in finance jobs, with several surveys hinting at optimism within the sector.
Finance professionals looking to the future
Most recently, the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply reported a reading of 54.1 for the services sector Purchasing Managers' Index in August - where a figure above 50 indicates expansion.
This was up from 53.2 in July and better than the 53.9 predicted by City economists.
Andrew Goodwin, senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, said that the figures were encouraging and told the Times that they provide further evidence the UK is on the road to recovery.
This follows on from the recent Confederation of British Industry Service Sector Survey, which highlighted that professional services firms are more optimistic about the coming months, with companies within the sector, including accountancy, legal and marketing firms, seeing slight rises in both the value and volume of business in the three months to August 12th.
Looking forward, firms within this sector anticipate further increases in the volume and value of business, with more professionals expecting rises than at any other point since November 2007.
Further optimism among finance workers was seen in the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales' (ICAEW) latest Business Confidence Index, which found that banking, finance and insurance professionals were the second most optimistic group, coming in just behind IT workers with a measure of 15.9.
Over the second quarter, the sector's confidence index rose by a significant 31.9 points, following a 30 point rise in the first three months of the year as firms sought to implement new strategies to help cope with the financial crisis.
The sector's measure compared to a UK average of 4.8, a stark contrast to the same period last year when the industry ranked almost 12 points below the national average, showing that people within the finance sector have got their eyes firmly on recovery, and with it better job prospects, in the coming months.
Treat green shoots with caution
Writing in his company blog, the ICAEW's chief executive Michael Izza said that the increase in businesses confidence is certainly good news.
However, he warned that it is vital to be cautious about these green shoots as, while a welcome milestone, improved confidence is only one step on the road to recovery.
"Recovery is now on the way but it's very fragile. We need to be extremely careful in all the decisions we take over the coming months not to destabilise it," he concluded.
Posted by Jon Aspinell
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