The Ashdown Group Jobs Index (AGJI) tracks the number of advertised permanent jobs at the Ashdown Group and the leading Internet job boards within the IT, Marketing, Accountancy and HR sectors. Data is compiled throughout the month and released in the first few days of the following month.

March 28th 2011:
Δ 9765 Δ
points

Change since February

Headline Figure:

After the fantastic start to the year, the Jobs Index has reached a plateau during March as the professional employment market pauses to catch its breath. The Index rose by just 0.18% during March, but there were more jobs advertised in Human Resources, Marketing and the Accountancy sectors than at any other time since June 2009 when the Ashdown Group first started tracking job availability.

Summary - The Job Market is Still on an Upward Curve but is Slowing

Following the rapid growth in demand seen during the first part of the year, the growth in the number of jobs advertised during March has started to plateau.

Demand for personnel within all sectors excepting IT grew during March. HR vacancies rose by 4.41%, Marketing by 1.22% and Accountancy by 0.41%. The IT job market fell by 0.78%.

Short-term and medium range forecast from John Lynes, Director of the Ashdown Group: 

‘In previous years, March has been a very busy month as public sector departments scramble to use up surplus budgets before the end of the fiscal year. Unsurprisingly, this public sector surge in demand has not materialized. However, I am glad to say that private sector demand has held firm during March and overall, remains at a similar level to February.'

IT Recruitment Market Analysis

'There was a small fall in demand within the IT sector during March. Both permanent and contract markets were equally affected. It is somewhat surprising that we have witnessed even a small drop in demand for IT personnel at this time. Historically this sector has performed well during this month in terms of procurement of IT equipment and software as well as hiring activity. The drop is so small that I do not believe it is likely to be the start of a downward trend and not too much should be read into it. It is mildly perplexing, however, when other sectors are performing and showing an increase in demand. To put this data into context, the IT job market has just witnessed the second strongest month in demand in the past two years.

'The Ashdown Group have witnessed an increase in demand for Business Analysts and this is usually a sign of new projects being kicked off, as requirements for future projects are gathered in preparation for the delivery of new systems or processes.

'Software developers with Microsoft .Net Framework programming skills remain in highest demand.

'Momentum for delivering applications which present company products and services to mobile devices remains strong. Across the whole IT sector, the fastest growth in demand is for skills surrounding the iPhone, Android and iPad space.

'General demand for software developers remains high as there is still a shortage of quality software developers in the job market. Demand is only set to grow for mainstream software development skills as Tier 1 supply has been restricted and the number of university leavers with software skills falls.

'Exchange 2010 and Sharepoint 2010 are the fastest growing infrastructure requirements as businesses are now implementing en masse.

'Although IT has been the slowest sector to take off so far in 2011, I am confident that we will see continued growth for the remainder of the year.'

Marketing Recruitment Market Analysis

‘An increase in the number of marketing vacancies of 1.22% advertised during March signals continued confidence within the sector, now at its highest point post recession.

'We are keen to analyse the Bellwether report to establish the breakdown in marketing spend in Q1 and see which areas are fuelling the demand. We predict that in line with the increase in demand for online marketing professionals, we will see an increase in budgets for online marketing.

'The shape of the marketing department is likely to change and adapt to market conditions. I anticipate any decline in traditional retail channels being replaced by online marketing channels.

'Year on year figures show that the number of marketing vacancies has climbed 18% during the past 12 months, with the fastest growth in the online segment of the market.

'I believe Q2 marketing spend will flatten as will the marketing job market. Current demand is running at a high level and is well up on the past two years.

'I predict low level growth within the marketing department for the remainder of the year.’

HR Recruitment Market Analysis

‘The star of the show during March has been the Human Resources job market, with the greatest gains. The sector rose by 4.41% in March putting it at its highest point since the Ashdown Group started tracking HR jobs data. After a lacklustre 2009 the HR market started to gather momentum during 2010. The first quarter of 2011 has seen accelerated growth with an increase in demand of 17.89% in the volume of HR jobs being advertised, making it the fastest growing job sector.

'We can only surmise that growth in demand for HR personnel is a sign of positive intentions within business. Three consecutive strong months of hiring activity within the HR sector make me feel increasingly confident of the direction of broader hiring demand across all sectors. In my opinion, a competitive market for talent will only generate additional demand for HR staff as the department attempts to motivate and retain key personnel.’

Accountancy Recruitment Market Analysis

‘The level of demand for accountancy personnel has risen once again but the rate of growth has slowed to just 0.41%.

'Along with other sectors, the accountancy market, after a very brisk January and February, has seen growth slow during March. In spite of this, the Index for accountancy jobs now stands at its highest point since the recession.

'The accountancy job market is fairly well insulated against economic change and has typically reacted slowly and cautiously to outside influences.

'Historically, we have experienced a tightening of availability from ‘employed’ candidates looking to further their careers whenever there has been economic uncertainty. We have seen growth in the number of accountancy graduates leaving university for a number of years so I do not foresee a supply problem for entry level posts.

'If I had to forecast demand within the accountancy market, I would not expect it to continue to grow in Q2 at the levels we have seen during Q1, if anything I am more convinced that we will see demand stabilize or fall slightly. If the UK economic conditions worsen as the year progresses, I would expect a slight drop off in demand in Q3 and Q4.'

Conclusion: 

'The level of demand for professionals within the IT, Marketing, HR and Accountancy sectors sits at their highest levels post recession. Current hiring rates are at their highest point for the past two years but the growth, for now has slowed.

'There are still a number of economic pressures that leave the job market and business confidence on a knife edge. Whilst the interest rates remain unchanged, inflation continues to rise and cannot be left unchecked indefinitely. Any increase in interest rates, used to quell inflation will in my opinion have a marked effect on the jobs market as the cost of borrowing and consequently business costs rise.

'We are quite possibly entering a period of stagflation as fuel costs are rising sharply and will ultimately drive retail prices up as the cost is absorbed within the sales price, further fuelling inflation. Cost push inflation will have the worst impact on employment within the UK as GDP falls and interest rates rise.

'There is growing disquiet within retail that a sector specific recession is looming, as consumer spending habits change and disposable income falls. Any increase in interest rates will further impact on available household income which will likely exacerbate the situation.

'My view on the general UK employment market is a little pessimistic. My opinion of the specialist job markets in which we operate is slightly different. I am optimistic about the requirement for IT staff during 2011 purely as a result of basic supply and demand. Similarly my feelings towards the marketing sector remain reasonably positive as the use of new marketing channels continues to grow.

'As seen through the difficulties of the recent recession, those companies that maintained their form, invested in marketing activity and stuck to plan were able to extend their market share. This objective can only be achieved if those businesses are effectively supported by the accountancy and HR functions. It is for this reason that I believe the professional job market in which we operate will remain relatively robust.

'I predict that businesses that are currently suffering will have a very tough ride in the coming months and may possibly become casualties if the economic situation worsens.

'There are some success stories out there and whilst certain skills are in short supply, many victims of failing companies will be absorbed by more successful firms.'

About the Ashdown Group Jobs Index

The Ashdown Group is a leading specialist recruitment agency operating in the UK

The Ashdown Group Jobs Index (AGJI) tracks the number of advertised permanent jobs at the Ashdown Group and the leading Internet job boards within the IT, Marketing, Accountancy and HR sectors. Data is compiled throughout the month and released in the first few days of the following month.

Analysis and commentary is provided by John Lynes, Operations Director of the Ashdown Group.

This data, comment and associated imagery is owned by the Ashdown Group. If you would like to reproduce any of the information or analysis please do so quoting us as your source and including a backlink.

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