The Ashdown Group Jobs Index (AGJI) tracks the number of advertised permanent jobs at the Ashdown Group and the leading Internet job boards within the IT, Marketing, Accountancy and HR sectors. Data is compiled throughout the month and released in the first few days of the following month.

June 29th 2010:
8015
points

Change since May

Headline Figure:

During June, the information technology (IT), human resources (HR) and marketing job markets were all down. The index has dropped by -3.18% to 8015, just above where it stood at the end of April.

Summary - Fall in Demand for Staff – Seasonal Shift or Drop in Business Confidence?

The largest drop of -11.31% during June was in the number of marketing vacancies being advertised as compared to the previous month.

The number of IT jobs being advertised dropped by -3.79% in June.

The second largest drop during June was within HR recruitment, with a drop in demand for staff of -5.52% against the May figures.

The accountancy job market was the only sector to see an increase in vacancies being advertised, rising by 4.34% against last month.

Short-term and medium range forecast from John Lynes, Director of the Ashdown Group: 

'As predicted, the volume of negative sentiment has taken its toll on the job market. The stock market is seeing a similar drop with the FTSE falling back to the same level as Sept 09.

'There have been a number of job loss headlines breaking over the past few days as the Chancellor’s ‘austerity measures’ take effect. Most of the losses have been in the public sector. It has been suggested that these losses will be absorbed by the private sector. Any faltering in the private sector, however, will stifle any such hopes.

'The summer period is typically slow in terms of recruitment with decisions being delayed and a reduced candidate pool to select from. It is difficult to tell at this stage whether the drop in hiring is a seasonal dip or something more worrying. To put things in perspective, the job market has dropped to the same level as the first week in May.'

Marketing Recruitment Market Analysis

'Previously the strongest job sector with 42% growth in the number of jobs advertised since June 09, the marketing sector saw the biggest fall of any sector so far this year with demand plummeting by -11.31%. This is possibly just a momentary blip in business confidence. The marketing department is fundamental to the growth of any business and with a short supply of high quality candidates, I predict that marketing vacancies will rebound in the medium term with strong demand returning in the final quarter of the year.'

Information Technology Recruitment Market Analysis

'There was a small fall in demand for IT personnel during June with the number of vacancies dropping by -3.79%. The number of jobs available within IT management and IT support positions is down. The recession saw a marked drop in the number of management positions with businesses scything through their management teams in an attempt to reduce costs; I don’t believe we will see an increase in IT management positions until there has been a prolonged period of stability and a proper return of confidence.

'In contrast to these figures, we have seen an increase in demand for software development skills and fewer available candidates. This in turn is fuelling a strong contract market. With higher annual growth than in our other sectors (28.46%), my prediction is that we will continue to see strong demand for software application development skills for the remainder of the year.'

HR Recruitment Market Analysis

'A drop in the number of jobs advertised since May of -5.52% could signal a downturn in hiring demand. HR hiring has historically been particularly sensitive to changes in business confidence. At this time, it is difficult to predict the level of demand for HR personnel, as a trend has yet to emerge. The HR job market is still up 26.53% on June 09 figures.'

Accountancy Recruitment Market Analysis

'The accountancy job market was the only sector to see an improvement in June with a rise in demand of 4.34% - similar to the rise seen in May and very positive news for the sector. However, the annual figures for the accountancy market show the lowest growth in the number of jobs since June last year compared to other sectors with an increase of just 4.21% in demand. I predict that this growth curve will not continue and expect demand to flatten off over the summer months.'

Conclusion: 

'The impact of government cuts is still weighing heavily on market confidence with many predicting that we will be taken back into recession. The combination of this and a seasonal lull in demand is dampening the upward trend in hiring activity we have experienced since the start of the year.

'We are now entering a typically quiet time for hiring as the holiday season approaches and this is likely to have a negative effect on the number of vacancies being advertised for the next few months. September will be the soonest we will be able to establish whether a new hiring trend is emerging.'