The Ashdown Group Jobs Index (AGJI) tracks the number of advertised permanent jobs at the Ashdown Group and the leading Internet job boards within the IT, Marketing, Accountancy and HR sectors. Data is compiled throughout the month and released in the first few days of the following month.

January 31st 2010:
7105
points

Change since November

Overall:             +1.35%               
IT:              -1.32%               
HR:           +20.85%               
Marketing:             +6.41%               
Accountancy:              -1.24%               

Headline Figure: 

The Index has recorded a rise of 1.35% in the number of advertised vacancies in January compared to November. With the exception of December, which historically sees lower numbers of vacancies advertised, the AGJI continues to climb and has reached a new high of 7105 points. A progressive Q4 recovery has seen an 8.5% increase in vacancy volume against the figures released in September 09.

Summary - HR Leads the Way:

There has been a surge in Human Resources vacancies with a 21% increase in vacancies advertised in January.

The IT and Accountancy sectors have remained fairly static with a small drop of -1.32% and -1.24% respectively.

Marketing jobs continue their upward trend with an increase of 6.41% in January representing growth of 25% against the figures of July 09.


Short-term and medium range forecast from John Lynes, Director of the Ashdown Group: 

‘The steep rise in HR vacancies can be interpreted a number of ways, one possibility is that the economic downturn had a smaller negative effect on jobs than previously anticipated and businesses were laying off HR personnel more aggressively than needed. My preferred view is that businesses are preparing the foundations for a year of hiring activity. My gut feeling is that this spike in demand will be temporary and it will settle down in the coming months.

‘A spending spree within marketing departments over the past 3 months must be paying dividends as investment in marketing staff continues unabated. Whilst companies continue to see returns from this activity, I can’t see demand drying up in the short term.

Demand for IT staff during November 09 had been strong; we have since seen a small drop in the number of vacancies during January. My forecast for 2010 is that IT skills, especially software development will be the most ‘in demand’ skills in most businesses.

Accountancy departments have remained fairly static without great lurches in demand. It is mildly concerning that there appears to be a gradual downward trend appearing with a 6% drop in the volume of vacancies being advertised in January 2010 versus July 2009.'

Conclusion:

'Finally UK businesses are seeing a return to confidence. Job security has improved and the number unemployed at the end of this recession is not as high as within previous recessions, fuelling an improvement in consumer confidence. Proof of this can be seen in many of the figures released by leading retailers over the festive period. House prices have recovered and it is this fact coupled with better job security that I believe have had the greatest impact on household spending and ultimately the job market.

'Within our customer base, we are seeing a shift in confidence from fear, uncertainty and doubt to a more stable platform based on real data and sales performance. Ironically the industry sectors forecast to see the most hiring activity are the financial and banking sectors.

'The economic problems and fall in consumer confidence through 2009 certainly weren’t helped by a media frenzy exacerbating the situation. We are now seeing more positive sentiment with the Office of National Statistics confirming the UK came out of recession during the last quarter of 2009. I predict the upward move continuing and this being reflected in the job market. There are many suggesting a second wave of economic turmoil, coining the phrase ‘double dip’ and we can’t rule this possibility out. For now we are proceeding with cautious optimism.'